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tv   Capital News Today  CSPAN  September 25, 2012 11:00pm-2:00am EDT

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we have a cohesive team fighting fraud when it is appropriate and gone after making sure that we are making progress. in those areas. you know, people know. people know that we will focus on the right things and we will continue to move forward. ..
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labor unions, 2.3 million, purse and all injury 2.4. you want to know who's dictating policy and suffocating their state? there you have it. the reason were 5010 jobs in 48 uneconomic development. jane nixon is not within the same world. we are in the world with hurt and despair. you see people putting $5 of gas in their tank because that's all they have. people wake up tomorrow hoping it's no worse than today and is going to the good life. it's okay for him. he's been on the payroll for 26 years. he is penchant for the rest of the site that we're going to pay. i'm sorry, the real world is about results and the results is where we find ourselves. in the real world, the ceo would be fired. >> was moved her next question then. this comes from miller and goes first first two days spent.
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>> colombia and other communities struggling to close the achievement gap among school children of different races. statewide data shows clear racial disparities in many socioeconomic indicators such as employment, education, homeownership and business ownership. what do you make of that? and as governor, what would you do to address it? >> i think it's all about jobs. we need more people getting taxpayers a number of people living off the government. you know, my wife and i have given so much back to the st. louis city schools at roosevelt high school, for the past six years we've been knee-deep in the problem center city. and by the way, we 50,000 kids now with normandie going the other way and not accredited schools, 50,000. philip busch stadium standing room only. we need more people employed in the state. we need more opportunity, we need more dreams to be fulfilled
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and we are simply languishing at the bottom of the barrel almost every economic category. you know, a lot of education is leadership and it starts at the top. i think there's well-intentioned people. were starting to show signs of progress and it was. we been in there. we've been in the trenches. for six years we've been trying to find a solution to the problems. kansas city, we can help getting it going from the ideas we have. there is racial disparity that comes to economic opportunity and jobs. in the best gift we give somebody as a career. >> jim higgins. >> okay, well one of the most inefficient things you can do with education dollars to send it to jefferson city and let the bureaucrats deal with that and then admit that. i mean, let the communities keep their own money and not have
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this, you know, big trail of money going back and forth. we need to allow parents to have more decisions in their schools and we need more school vouchers and charter schools. when the money comes back from the state, there's lots of strings attached and mandate. so every school district goes a little different. they have different names. so we need to allow more flexibility in the school, more innovation, competition, innovation. it works for cars and computers, it will work for education. so we can't mandate and not everybody jump through the same hoops in every community. we've got to just allow the free market to work and allow innovation and competition to work, yes.
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>> jay nixon. >> were making progress in education. we supported increasing the common core standards that we would have a challenging our to compete in the education world is going to deliver and we support public education. both teachers in the classroom as well as folks to take a hike of serving in public as teachers. that's why even though other states the dramatic test a funny way of record funding for classrooms at a time in which we have had to make her a challenging decisions our budget. that's why else would work to expand our a+ program, which not only provides a two-year scholarship, and also the school improvement program are now 150 more schools across the show me state of met the three years of rigorous requirements to rise to that level and we've been out there working with them. so also in things like charters, we were to get more accountability and charter schools. this year the measure would pass in a bipartisan way will get
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much more accountability so we don't see the failures financially of those charter schools, which are propping up and moving forward in our state. but ultimately you have to support public education and ideas can a radical ideas like vouchers taking public money and setting not to schools for their dollars for their education just won't work. we have to take the limited resources we have and put those resources with the public schools. as your governor, have and will continue to do that and will continue to see solid improvement. it's our task was of kids are gone up and more kids are going to school. >> the next question comes from bill miller and goes first to jim higgins. >> if elected, will she do about our transportation needs in missouri? would you work with the general assembly on a plan for a tax increase to raise revenue for transportation? would you help provide the leadership in pushing for a vote to raise needed revenue for transportation? >> well, we need to make better
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use of the tax dollars with god. i don't, you know, i guess there was a plan to expand on 70 and expand the interchanges and put in toll roads, turnout over to contractors and let them run it. i'm not sure that's the thing we should do first, you know, we have to maintain the roads we've got an obviously maintain the bridge is. but you know, keep the tax, the gas tax the way it is now and make more efficient use of the money we've got. maybe contract out more, more things. if you give the contractors a bonus for finishing early, that seems to work. so things like that we would do.
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>> jay nixon. >> thank you. we have a long history in this area and our state. we have a very large system. so as i came in, with the doing a couple things and are now in the process of implementing a sumo foer. the first was to expand the capacity so we could have roads built efficiently and effectively under that model and we are moving forward in the area and getting more dollars in the construction and getting more perfect to the dl. the second thing is we knew we had to a much more modern modoc. we are in the process of downsizing the agency by over a thousand employees, which will ultimately lead to half a billion dollars, $512 million that would have been going to overhead, now go into roads and bridges and repairing our roads. that significant structural change had been fought for years and we were able to push that forward to mean half a billion dollars more to repair and build roads in the state of missouri.
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and build roads in the state of missouri. , the method in the state of missouri. , the method of funding rose, the gas tax as cars get more miles per gallon and more miles driven, there's fewer dollars that come in per mile driven. so we have limited front of a significant discussions. any of those will ultimately have to involve the public. and i look forward to working to be a leader, to improve, maintain and improve transportation system in the upcoming years. >> dave spence. >> we have over 32,000 miles of roads. we've got a challenge. i would say as we speak today, no matter which you say, someone will say what about this road? our roads are in decent shape. some will dispute that come but the roads are in decent shape. great addition to northern missouri, greathearted economic development. i 70, i 44, they are past their warranties, but we can't do it
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all. this year the budget for heavy department, his majesty pesetas to 600 million or 550 million is $200 billion. that's a lot of money. rivette projects like ia-64, mississippi river bridge going from st. louis county to st. charles. we've got other things on the horizon. if you look at a five, 10 to 15 year horizon. we can't rest on our laurels. i would like to look from the inside out to see if 2 billion really is the right number or a little more than that before we talk about any tax increase or another amendment or anything. i think it's time to lift up every rock in the state come to see how we do things and see if we can do a better, more efficiently or if we should be doing it at all. that's the fresh eyes and fresh vision and bring to this race. >> next question comes from jeff fox and goes first to governor jay nixon. >> follow-on transportation. high-speed rail coming to the
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midwest. illinois is already building the spine of the system. should missouri be more aggressively pursuing its potential within that system? >> first of all, thanks for the question. we've worked hard to make sure that we keep a robust rail industry in the state. though st. louis and kansas city have been railhead and our significant rail centers for sending and producing and transporting that huge amounts. so the real economy is very important to us. in missouri we have a strong industrial rail process where you have a lot of goods across our state. we have work to improve the system, get rid of bottlenecks. for example, the osage river where we are now in the process of building a bridge that we can get another land we don't have slowdowns. the first step is to make sure we don't get slowdowns so when we look to more possibilities for passenger rail travel, that we have a system to deliver on
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time. so we're looking at that. we've also worked with illinois because anybody that looks at the bigger picture of our country will see getting the first step from chicago to st. louis is never going to attract the resources for high-speed rail across their state. that's why we worked with the state of the one i and others to get the initial project completed, while at the same time working to improve our network here for on-time efforts. you know, all of that is part of a long-term transportation focus that will continue to provide us a competitive economy. >> dave spence. >> i think it sounds great in concept, but who'll pay for? with 16 children dollars and at a national basis and barely a meter in a a daily basis. we are an emergency, rainy day fund. i think it sounds great, sure does. but who's going to pay for? i don't think the taxpayers want to pay 1 dollar for it.
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dilemma has three governors in prison for $15 billion deficit. if they want to pay, that's the problem. misery needs to make the tough decisions. should they be put in the mix of whether we've reduced 70 or high-speed rail? is probably in the mix, but i don't think is before us now. i want to see what the load factors to be. that's my world. i want to see supply and demand. if the demand there? will supply. if not, we're not in a position to build it and they will come. we are just not there. >> jim higgins. >> okay, well i am not a transportation expert and i don't think these guys are either. actually i graduated from school as a civil engineer, but they work five years as a civil engineer, but lately i've computers. but why should a bureaucrat decide, you know, what mode of
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transportation is best, whether we have rail or highway is? it got us in trouble in the beginning. we built all these highways. we overdo it on the highways. now we have pollution and gas consumption because some bureaucrat decided that we needed highways. while now were trying to find other things mass transit and other things. so let the market decide. you know, don't have, you know, bureaucrat decide what our transportation is. supply and demand is a powerful thing and coming in now, maybe mass transit or maybe high-speed rail will, and be a factor. but people have to use it in people have to get out of their
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cars first. >> next question comes from hilary niles and goes to dave spence peered >> operator promised to strengthen our defend the second amendment. these explain exactly what you mean by that. >> i'm a staunch defender of the second amendment. our governor hasn't always been. he said he was going to be wild, wild west. i don't think it been that way. it not guns. people pulling the trigger. there's a lot of avid hunters have a lot of good citizens of missouri that her gun lovers that are not criminals and everybody must you paint anyone with a gun is a criminal. the criminals will get guns no matter what. and economic despair will push them to commit crimes. so in my world, i will defend the second amendment because it is our god-given right and is in the constitution from the very beginning. >> jim higgins. >> yeah, i think -- i really
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don't think there should be a debate over this. the second amendment is they are. it's an inalienable right to self-defense. you know, you have a right to concealed carry, a right to defend yourself and your family and gun ownership, the statistics are next, but gun ownership oftentimes deter crimes. so you know, a gun is a tool or an instrument, inanimate instrument to be used by people and can be used for good or bad and we need to protect our self defense. we need to protect our right to self-defense. >> jay nixon >> we have a long tradition of being outdoors, using guns in
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very sportsmanlike way. now governor when it comes time to do with these issues we've worked to make sure we expanded the rights of folks and kept the training that was out there their nature military folks had the opportunity kaman forstmann folks and others. we've made the necessary changes in those last to strengthen them, to allow more people to defend themselves. but ultimately this test or conservation heritage the state. as most everybody here knows, i've been involved in hunting and fishing outdoor activities my entire life and look forward to continuing that. september 1 of this series a good rate to start its season in northeast missouri. last year obviously dear hunting, turkey hunting, all the things we've done for many, many generations are part of who we are. we have a strong conservation program, and all those are built built -- those strong programs allow us to have excellent education for kids. i mean, we started beginning at
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governors used turkey hunting race had those now over the last three years because what we want to do is pass on that conservation that they can also pass on training so the kids to qualify for that to do the essays and when competition get half a day at hunter training. then we get time to spend with them. then they take folks on their own property and allow them to hunt, many for the first time. so to expand this conservation ethic in our state is something very, very important and something that is the value we share a one eyed look forward to protect them. >> okay, the next question from bill miller and gophers to jim higgins. >> do you believe the quarter of engineers operating plan for the missouri river takes into consideration what is best for the landowners along the river? is there some paint lacking in the plan as to missouri? >> that's a good question.
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i haven't really looked into that very much. you know, there is always a conflict for something like rivers that is owned by the public. it's really hard to determine the best use of that. you know, there's always conflict of interest and staff as far as what you're talking about with the corps of engineers, i'm sorry, i don't know that much about it. >> jay nixon >> the missouri river is important to the state of missouri for a lot of reasons. first of all it provides a transportation on for us to keep that competition between rail, track and barge so that we can get our products to market more cost effectively. second, and it's an important source of water. and third, that land by the river all the way across
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367 miles across our great city the most vibrant agricultural and land we have in the state. we also have a number of cities cropped up next to it. now, i'm just a bit the corps of engineers many times and will continue to missouri centuries. in the upstream states and reservoirs feel as if sometimes the missouri river should be named in north dakota or the south dakota river in montana. we've worked very, very hard to protect our rights and made sure they were trying to move up the gage marks on the upstream reservoirs so we get more flood control downstream as well as get rid of what i think is not scientifically based spring rise, which can cause floods because of the natural hydrographic of the river. i've worked hard on issues and none more important than masterly sauce was in northwest missouri or the corps of engineers wrongheaded decision
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to blow up the levee. missourians are tied to the river and needs a governor with a deep understanding to fight for our rights. >> date spans. >> i think it? total common sense and everyone along the river is how you die. sometimes they get regulations in front of common sense. we need to protect and i understand that. there's got to be a happy medium out there, but we shouldn't have these great pendulum swings or shut down commerce dr. edge, to shut down our grain traffic, shut down and barge traffic. there's got to be a happy medium. you've got to communicate with them and in the last two years i don't live along the missouri river, however everyone i've talked to does is fit to be tied that our federal government and the corps of engineers has lost their mind. i would get in there, deal with them and i will be the governor that stands up to the federal
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government and lack of common sense in the continuing rise of bureaucracy and regulations. i will fight tooth and nail to see what is best for why 5.9 million missourians. >> okay, this'll be your last question will come from jeff flax and gophers to governor jay nixon. >> the state foundation formula for public schools is complex and remains underfunded. should it be overhauled? and if so, how? >> we've worked hard to work the legislature both in the changes they made in the past as well as the methods we fund k-12 education and we will continue to put dollars fare. last year the beginning of your focus is on making sure that we preserve the funding for k-12 so we had a certainty of their dollars unlike other states that we were able to get that done, quite frankly record spending on investment on k-12 education.
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as we move forward, working with folks to make sure you get the necessary tweaks to the formula if they're necessary because the growth across the state and shifts in population in assessed valuation is something we work for. but it is a very complicated rubric and they think it's very easy to talk about how things might be different, but the bottom line is the legislature has been the last method was pushed through by senator shield than others. it focuses on the right wing that we will look forward to working with them if there's necessary small changes to be made. but the basic formula about making sure we get an equitable distribution of the dollars to send and part of the missouri law for many, many decades and will continue to work to make it as efficient, affect given fair as possible. >> date spans. >> is a slippery slope because the matter were you going in the
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come, some people feel like they don't get enough. the ones who do want to hold onto it. i problem solver, not a politician. i'm willing to open it up and look at it. i surround myself with people on bias and see if it's truly fair. also in our state we have a funding problem. it's called lack of taxpayers. money is not always the answer to a republican education. can they treat their business model? absolutely, i would encourage them. precious common sense, but we need to look at the number of taxpayers and people on unemployment that if you do not and hurting our overall education system. so the best thing we can do a scourge, missouri business to expand, and get more taxpayers and then it's a nice problem because you have funding. we squeeze blood from a turnip
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in our state. a lot of farmers know what that means. we don't have enough taxpayers to truly find k-12 adequate ability so everybody's happy. >> jim higgins. >> there is always a battle with the school formula. we spend our money, put it in a big pool and then we spend a lot of time enough for, scored as tutors spend a lot of time and effort. your credit spend a lot of time and effort trying to figure out how to distribute it to the schools. well, why then send it in the first place? let the school districts keep their own money and use it the best way they see fit. and again from how charter schools and vouchers dunlap aaron make choices for their children. right now parents don't get involved with the schools because they don't have any choices. you know, the only choice they
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have is the flowers you can plant out in the front of the school are sent to. do you know we need -- if there were vouchers and parents had more financial resources to spend, that they could spend their own money and children's education comment they would make better choices than the bureaucrats would. >> jim higgins has raised the issue of vouchers for education. we have enough time for 452nd rebuttal. governor nixon, which he liked to discuss vouchers for education? >> the basic understanding of missourians to public school supported by the public, i just think it is a clear values issue that we should not take public dollars and sign-on to private schools. there have been efforts to try to do that. both of my opponents have been in favor of doing that. i think it is not the right way
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to go for a stay. the public education needs to be supported by the public. you need that connection with the communities. it's a long tradition of our state. it's an important part of a public education means, that direct tie and taking public dollars and given them to private schools is a significant shift from the state i'm wrong on policy. >> date spans, do you support actors in education? >> now, i think would be mass chaos. the systems failing of this 50,000 kids in our status competition at the same as the kids deserve better. the syrians should expect more. sometimes those business models are broken away to tear it up and start over. our education system tends to dwell in the negative. i would say 97% of the schools in the state are working really well. however, the most impactful people in our state are the ones
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and those unaccredited districts. and we are losing a whole generation by not putting every effort and whatever it takes. if it includes school choice, that's what it's going to be because we're going to get people graduating to a dream versus the life of poverty. >> jim higgins, you have the right to say more about vouchers if you like. >> i'll pass. >> it is time now for closing statements will start first with governor jay nixon. the candidates have two minutes. governor, go ahead. >> it's been a high honor privilege to serve and i look forward to the opportunity if people honor me with the continuation of that ability. it's been four years, but we've had a good week. when you look yesterday, we finished where we were able to announce for the third straight year in a row the compensation rates are going down. they go down because forgetting more competition to market a workers are better trained and more safe. very proud of them.
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earlier in the day it was here in kirksville announcing they've exceeded our goals and more health care education is delivered in a state because we are efficiently and effectively delivering what it takes to move the state or word. in just a couple days before that i had a chance to walk through the plant in kansas city, which is the most efficient and effective auto plant anywhere in the world. i had a decision i got a lot to governor and i made a decision to appoint a jobs task force and set the auto industry america was going to start right again in the show me state. and thousands of people's jobs were on the line and the legislature didn't get it done on time, i called them back and brought democrats and republicans together in a fiscally prudent way, put together necessary package to get that investment in our state. because of that investing 1.7, gm and $389, thousands of jobs away. the rebirth of the parts industry to focus on what we can
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do by bringing people together. we are making real progress. that is why we have seen the jobs report show our unemployment rate below the national average. that's why we seen this morning's number confirmed. discreet at the third most jobs come including 4900 new manufacturing jobs in this state this month alone. we're headed in the right direction. we need to keep moving that way. >> dave spence >> odb one name in history. you probably won't know who it is. edward smith. he was the captain of the titanic, down partying with the gas in the boat while we ran into an iceberg. i feel it we are running into an iceberg in this day. was that of and some food stamps, 40 and economic development, rapid pay to play at the governor's office is for sale and it's not ready. he is beholden to special interests. look at the monetary trail. it's not right. it's not what our state deserves
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in a cycle route to 114 counties, they are looking for honesty, integrity and they are looking for somebody to believe in that surely will fight for them and fight for their jobs. i fight for his job in a fight for their jobs. it's time for the career politician to go home. it is time for true leaders to come in and straighten out what the politicians have made. the dispatch caught our governor dean visible governor for a reason. this is about leadership. ..
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that's not momentum. i bring fresh eyes, fresh energy and fresh set of ideas, and i want azeri to join me in getting missouri back to work. >> $24 million, that is with the budget for missouri will be next year, the state income tax money and the fed to all but $24 billion of other people's tax money sitting in jeff city. we have a problem with the revolving door where
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legislatures when their term is up turn around and become lobbyists. why do we have that problem? $24 billion of other people's tax money. the major parties spend millions of parties on their campaigns. why is that? why did people contribute millions of dollars to their campaign? because whoever wins will have control of $24 billion of other people's tax money. the special interest groups spend a lot of energy and resources, school administrators , a whole host of special interest groups, contractors, corporations. we all spend the lot of time and effort trying to influence legislators to get back some of that $24 billion. it's a waste of time. it's a big game to everybody. it's a bpt the taxpayers who hae supported.
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you know, the state has an obligation to provide basic services, but it does not need that much money to do it. pretty savvy, and they can spend their own money on the things that they need, you know, much better than a bureaucrat can spend for the. so -- and in missouri the governor has a lot of discretion to cut unnecessary things from the budget. if i was governor you can trust me to cut a lot of unnecessary things from the budget. >> okay. that concludes our missouri gubernatorial debate today. >> the first debate the turn presidential candidates mitt romney and president barack obama is next wednesday, october october 3rd. the university of denver. watch and engage with c-span, including a live debate preview starting at 7:00 p.m. eastern fall by the domestic policy debate at 9:00 p.m.
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post debate reactions and comments. calls, e-mails, and tweets. follow our live coverage on c-span, c-span radio and on line at >> presidential debates next wednesday live on c-span, c-span radio, and on line at watch ending dates. pass >> on washington journal tomorrow morning and look at the issue of foreign policy in this year's campaign. our guest is nicholas burt, former undersecretary of state for political affairs. political science professor at norfolk state university will focus on the role of virginia in the election and a history of
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the african-american vote in virginia. we will also be joined by editor in chief of the washington monthly to discuss recent articles in the magazine examining the consumer financial protection bureau. live on c-span every day at 7:00 a.m. eastern. >> i watched c-span every time, especially when i really pay attention the most. any time something is going on i want to watch c-span because they typically have the best, most unbiased view of whatever is happening. if i want to get spun in a circle of watch one of the other news organizations. i love c-span. watch on tv, on line. if something's going on now want to know what's happening al west and to c-span. don't know that i have a favorite show. for me it is always just anytime i need to know what's going on i know that c-span will have the real story of what's been happening. >> jeff trick watch is c-span on
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direct tv, created by america's cable companies in 1979, brought to you as a public service by your television provider. >> a new report from the center for american progress looks at our demographic changes and voter perceptions of the economy affecting the presidential race. the panel of journalists discuss the report's findings in washington today. this is an hour-and-a-half. >> good afternoon, everyone. my name is daniella leger, vice president for american values and the communities here at the center for american progress. i wanted thank you for joining us. the role of demographics, economics, and other legislation , voter ideology in the 2012 election. and i want to wish you all a happy voter registration date. i'm sure everyone in this firm is registered to vote.
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please make sure your friends and family are as well. this event is being televised by c-span. we are just a few weeks beforet may seem like a very short time, but in politics it's a lifetime. much has been written about the current state of the election and suddenly plenty of people have a pint of the core rate -- horserace. we are interested in digging down into what is actually happening. what trends are a current and how the people to study feel about the economy and most importantly as a test. i want to have a follow-up discussion about economics, demographics, and the implications were 2012. we are following up the release of november last year. the co-authors wanted to see what changed and what if anything it would mean for the presidential election. so with that i am pleased to introduce my colleagues ruy teixeira who co-authored the
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report which you can find on our website. after this presentation he will read a conversation with our very distinguished panel and look forward to hearing from all of you. and for anyone watching online i encourage you to follow the conversation at twitter using the has tech cap 270. both the foundation. a guest of the brookings institution where he has directed projects on geography and co-author of a series of papers with an eye on the shifting demographics. his recent writings included demographic change in the future of the parties, the european paradox and the decline of the white north class and the rise of the mass upper-middle-class. a degree and ph.d. from sociology and in case you're a green bay packers fan of sorry about the game yesterday. please try me in welcoming ruy teixeira. [applause]
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>> thanks, everybody, for coming. this report is a follow up that we wrote and released last november. it dealt obviously with the relationship between demographics and economics. that's what a tough election. of course here we are in the heart of the political campaign. we think it's proper to come back and revisit our discussion of demographics for economics adding a little bit about ideology because ideology has been injected quite forcefully into this campaign, particularly by the republican side. and it has become a very, very interesting race and receive a lot of the trends we discussed in the earlier discussions. let me get to that. the first chart here is titled demographics of the 2012 election.
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on the left to columns it just shows you how minorities, white college graduates voted in 2008. minorities 8024 obama. what college graduates of four. deficit. in the right-hand column you see how much of demographic change we have just the last five years based on current population is eligible voter data. according to the stated just the last four years using an increase of three points from the share of eligible voters. decreased three points for the share of voters who are white, non college, and working class. that's quite a change. now, let's think a little bit about what these figures mean. the figures from 2,008 and the figures from today. first of all, even though it looks like the minority vote shares to go up. let's say that obama gets a% of
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the minority felt. let's say again he only loses white college graduates by four points. mitt romney would have to get double the margin of 18 points among the white working class. that's the change this bright. if this test is realized, the minority vote goes to buy a couple points. 26 percent in 2008. 28 percent in 2012. again, the white college graduate and minority stays about the same, mitt romney will have to get north of a 40-point margin to actually win the election, to win the popular vote. let's take a look at where we are now based on a recent poll that came out. i think the gold standard.
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they've really do it right and they have a 3,000 persons sampled. so it's pretty, pretty reliable stuff. they give you a lot of interesting demographic things. this shows that obama is leading by eight points. if you look at the averages in the national poll, that's a bit high relative to the average. the average is a little above four. if elected polls that do it right, you'd probably be up by five points, but this is within distance of the averages. actually very similar to the poll which we talked about later. so 50 in 43. in the breakouts per race. the black at the margin, 91 points. that is identical with obama's martin in 2008. 7224 among hispanic.
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that seems like a lot, and it is, but it's not that far off from most of the points on the spread a to showing that the average is about a 45-point margin for barack obama over the last performance. what that means is that the idea that he could get 80 percent of the minority vote again is actually quite possible based on this and other data. it looks like what he will get to. if he doesn't get 80 you will get 7879. and then the last shows the the breakout for college grad, some college or less. and as you can see in the right-hand figures, the likely voters, obama is actually, according to the stated doing and little bit bitter to follow the better among white college graduates voters that he did in 2008. was and then by 13 points which is actually somewhat better. so remember when i was saying
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about the elan is a large margin . he is not anywhere close. that is the bottom line. you might see a margin of 20 points for mitt romney, a margin of 22 points. but no word you see these outsize marches that he really needs to win the election given how obama is doing among minority voters but given how he appears to be holding the support and then some among white college graduates voters. that is where we are now in the national picture. of course as we know this election, this oddly enough not decided by the popular vote. that would be a silly and weird thing to do. instead we have this electro the system. so in of the story. that means that the election really comes down to typically the outcomes and a number of
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different battle ground states. this is the battle ground as we laid it out in our first, three dockets. six states in kind of the west-midwest. pennsylvania, ohio, minnesota, michigan, iowa. three states in the southwest. three states in the near south and north carolina, virginia, and florida. now, these buckets of it's a pretty different, as you'll see. the six states, it's more heavily white. the level of demographic change, and there are more -- you know, they're much more slowly changing than the states and the news of which have a much higher level of minority voters better tilting fairly rapidly. that, of course, is facing the southwest with a minority population is shooting up their rapidly and the state's are much higher proportion of minority voters. in that sense, more favorable to barack obama.
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now, with that in mind let's look of some of the particular swing states that are in play at this point. now, maybe more so than any other state of ohio is believed to be the focal upon the selection. it is a state that was believed to be very accessible for mitt romney, a state that obama could hold. if he holds all six of the states in the west govern the area he is only four electoral votes short of victory. so critical for the strategy to hold the state of ohio. now, that's not happening at this point. at this point obama is broadly after a 45-point lead in the state. a few buckets of the data on the bottom you see that the worst thing for obama in 2008 was the white working-class. lost by ten points. it's up was that he would be able to expand that parging quite a bit. you wouldn't think it would have been that hard a sell. somewhat culturally conservative
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levels. among the hard-hit economic area. a lot of ticked off factory workers. you think it would have been an ideal place in which to sell the brand. that does not turn out to be the case. at this point we look at polls the breakout, white college and on college voters. robbie is not anywhere close to driving of that margin among working-class voters. he is, in fact, at best a few points better than wind mccain ran in 2008 and he is doing no better at all among white college graduates. that is one reason why the state is at this point looking pretty favorable toward barack obama. he could carry it by as much as he did in 2008. and also, if you look at it geographically obama is doing very well in the columbus area, which is kind of the slim support where it counts. o.c. investors and a lot of other states. the grace to the pennsylvania which, again, if their romney
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team could have put pennsylvania in place it would have been the key to a lot of other things. but the problem for them now is that pennsylvania is looking very difficult for them. obama is barely running in eight or nine or ten. average margin. it's just not happening. again, it comes back to what appeared to be the big coke, that they could drive up the white working-class margins in that state. 2008, a 15-point of vantage for john mccain, but the polls coming out of pennsylvania again and again show is not doing any better than-15. so basically the state is looking very similarly in terms of its to graphics how the demographics trail for the political support as it did in 2008. the same thing applies to the geographical distribution.
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you look at how obama is running in the suburbs, similar to how he ran in 2008 and so on. so definitely looking like advantage obama in pennsylvania. michigan is another state where the romney campaign thought they might have iran. this is not happening. michigan is pretty decisively on the side of obama. the geographical pattern of the vote. about as well in the edge for a mature area. the statewide vote in 2008. they're just not much going on there. wisconsin is a state where obviously if there were going to crack the midwest given what's happening with ohio they thought perhaps they could do it in wisconsin. the problem is twofold for them, i think. if you look at the level of demographic change that has taken place in wisconsin, it's actually quite startling according to a current population data. the three-point increase in the share of minority eligible voters. four-point increase among white
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college graduates and a seven-point decline among white non college voters, eligible voters. he exchanges and obviously they go exactly against what is in the interest of the rodney team. maybe they thought that they nominated paul ryan and would be able to take advantage with what they believe to be this massive culturally conservative white working-class cooper voters but it does not seem to be happening. they're making some progress, according to the poll. some progress among white college graduates, but it's not anywhere close to what is needed to take the state. we are not able to sort of most of the state on the face of this ongoing demographic pattern of support. florida is a state that, let's face it, if our romney campaign loses florida they're chances of winning the 2012 collection are close to zero. and right now at this point the obama campaign is running a little bit ahead, by several points according to latest
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polls. again, if we look at the pattern of support among groups like hispanics, like the pattern of support, the best group for romney to make progress in. we will look at the breakouts. we're not seeing any province being made among these voters. we're not seeing a noticeably bigger margin among white working-class voters for the gop candidate. it is not happen. it's also been translated into what we see, similar margins in places like the i-4 corridor tampa and orlando. looked to be pretty similar them what they were in 2008. by and large not much progress is being made by the romney campaign. in virginia we see, again, some demographic change happening on the right. working class.
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the key to virginia for romney will have been to widen the margin with the gop candidate among white working-class voters. mccain carry them by over 30 points in 2008. so has run the at this point, but it is basically about the same margin, 31, 32 points as mccain got in 2008. to add to that we see this burgeoning white college graduate group that obama lost by about 11 points in 2008. he is facing the most have seen, basically about even among white college graduates voters of virginia. that makes it very difficult for romney to put together a coalition that can take the state. colorado has been a state that has been fairly close. obama looks like he has. three or four-point lead on average. quite a lot of demographic change in the state. minority eligible voters have gone up by three percentage points, and white working-class voters have gone down by three percentage points. again, it does not appear that
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romney is able to turn that demographic tide in his favor. he's not doing much better among white working-class voters of all according to the polls i've seen. he made some progress among them outside martian. obama of 14 points in 2008, but is not making nearly enough progress to take the state. you break it down geographically , denver, about half the state looks very similar in terms of how much coming in on polling data as it did in 2008. finally the poster child for demographic change in the united states and how it can shift the state's rapidly over time, grace state of nevada. obama is running ahead, not nearly as far as he did in 2008. look at this data. unfortunately it is caught up in the monitor, but you can see that an incredible increase of nine percentage points in the share of eligible voters who are minorities took place according
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to the data between 2008 and 2012, a massive demographic tide against which the republicans have to run. you can also see that a decline of five percentage points in voters who are white non college which of course john mccain's best corporate 2008. so that is a very quick to work, very quick speed run on some of the swing states of the 2008 election. maybe it's time for the 2012 election, step back, catch my breath and to say, why is this? why is this going on? why is obama have a solid lead like he does? why is romney having such difficulty finding traction? what many people argue to be a very winnable election with up poor, limping along economy in the president who has done some legislative things that, let's face it, or not all that popular, at least in the beginning like health care reform act and someone. the stimulus was looked upon favorably by a lot of voters
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because even though in the view of many it may help the economy come back from cataclysmic disaster, it did not exactly turn it into a picture of health, and voters tend to be unforgiving. so what is going on? well, the first factor is the economy. it's not great now, but it is a lot better than it used to be. at think we are beginning to definitely get the sense that voters are getting credit for how much things have improved relative to a disastrous economic situation in the first year. they do, in fact remember a few years back. some political scientists who maintain voters cannot run the what they have for breakfast. basically just vote on what's happening. i think we are seeing that in fact there is an influence on what went before, who people blame for what went before, and how people see the current incumbent. so i think as we are seeing the economy picked up a bit, i gain strength. this is really helping obama to take the edge off of this
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economic strategy for the rodney team. sis saying, you know, obama is the president, a bad economy. of for me in on make it better does not seem to be doing the trick. the obama strategy has actually been pretty effective. he is understood what the shifting demographics me for the country and for his political coalition. the key is understood the need to mobilize the groups that really make up his coalition and make sure they are enthusiastic so he has been emphasizing a lot of issues, for example, immigration, women's issues, medicare, cuts to education, tax cuts for the rich. he has been very source will about contacting his views on things with what he says are the views of the other side which are sort of embracing a host of unpopular positions and into all kinds of unpleasant things to these constituencies that he has very much double down and mobilize the base.
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also, the way he has tried to paint rodney as an out of touch private equity guy who would not know working-class person of that came up and put them on the nose has actually been a fairly successful strategy, particularly not only with the base but the white working-class that romney needed to reach in huge numbers to be competitive in this election. i think the obama team realized correctly that there is -- some very off-putting things about romney which actually are to some extend dividing the republican party these days, but romney does not particularly make a small target. that has been successful. we cannot leave this without saying just a word about republican performance. it has been designed, you might almost say. they sat down and try to optimize the things in my say that would really take off the base of the democratic party and really kind of raise concerns among independent and swing voters. it probably could not have done much better. this reflects the way the
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republican party is to some extent being captured by elements who are really much more conserve -- pretty far away from the medium voter on the level of conservatism on the social and economic issues, the whole issue of bringing paul ryan to the ticket and embracing this approach to american society in economics which i think is just really far away from the political center. the whole 47% thing that came out with romney should be read is not just a gap, but to some extent being the delightful truth about where today's gop is coming from in terms of their attitude toward economics and public policy. i think that has been a millstone around their neck and has, you know, this might have been an election that was not a gimme for them either, less to said they had to maximize their opportunities. that's my take on what's going on. abcaeight check out the report and look at some of the maps and
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charts that will be presented. before that i want to bring out this great panel that will discuss all these issues and much more in excruciating detail. come up here and will get started you want to be here. yes. that's fine. the here. sent or you want. very briefly introduced the panel. to my left, and greenberg, one of my very favorite pollsters. not only did she go out there and take the pulse of the nation, but she has intelligent and interesting things to say about it. she digs beneath the surface. to my right is my very favorite right winger here does an
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excellent blog for the national review called the agenda. you read one thing from the conservative side of the aisle i heartily recommend her blog. if i became a conservative it might be because i keep on reading this column. great stuff. political director of atlantic media. unit, longtime columnist and writer and analyst about really all the things i was talking about in terms of demographics. as i sometimes say, if you're just going to read one columnist , that would be the guy. finally, executive director which has all kinds of fantastic work and immigration and immigration reform and a longtime student of latino vote. so and delighted you guys could be here to discuss the stuff with me. let's start with you. a new poll that came up which really shed some light of these issues. >> let me try to take what you said and put it in a -- of was
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trying to do the last four years of presidential politics in a few minutes. if you think about 1968-1988 republicans won the white house five of six times. one that so convincingly that in the 80's it was talked about, terrible:00 on the electoral conference. our room having conversations like that with lee atwater. 92-2012 democrats have won the popular vote in five out of six elections. in fact, you can look at this as as date era. all the things have changed from the first time when republicans become a bridge to the second when democrats have the chance. first is the changing composition of the electorate which you describe in 1984. sixty-five @booktv 8161% of the vote. 47 percent of college-educated and 12 percent minorities. since then it has doubled to
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26%. the college will share has ticked up to 35%, and then on college wide share as come down to 49%. you are projecting it will slip even further. in fact going if you take reagan's share of the vote in 84 the electorate that existed, 5952. such as the one thing. the second thing is what i like to call the class in version, the democrats in the first decades after world war two did better among non cause and college whites. it ran butter among college than non college -- college in not college. in that began to change in the 70's and 60's. republicans downscaling. seventy's and 80's and 90's. but the point where under clinton the lines converged. in 2000, gore ran for points better. carry six, obama seven. today it's nine or ten. beckham i would argue that this
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class and version is going to have to get wider. what this has done is produce an environment in which for all the numbers talking about, the victory came to just to numbers. the 40. as you said to me 180% in the 08. if he matches that and they represent at least the toyota 6% they did last time he only needs 40 percent of whites. in fact, as they were saying, the internal composition is changing in a way that makes it more accessible from to get there. you know, to me you have to look not only in education but gender and basically it creates four quadrants. if you look at el eight college white man, not college white man, and on college what women. obama was at 42 or below. he will drop in all three of those quadrants this time. numbers are consistently running a little lower than they did in l.a., and on college men and
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women and the college men. the fourth quarter with a college-educated white women, and he won a majority of them last time. in all polling, including ours, he is holding a majority. so basically the math that gives you at this point for the republicans is that if obama can hold his 80 percent among the minorities, which he is a 78 percent of our poll on friday, if he can hold his 52 percent among college white women, he is it 50 in our poll. romney has to win two-thirds of all of the whites to win, to get a national majority. now, he can do that. republicans were in that ballpark. but to give you a sense of what we hear talk about two-thirds among those other columns is what reagan wondering the most decisive plans live in modern times. so that is -- i will and the two quick points. there is a not entirely comforting message for democrats here as well.
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you know, the general trend here is allowing them to win a majority with a smaller number of whites and they used in the. there also winning a small majority. and the reality is, if you look at the last four times democrats have has unified control of government, each time they suffered a fairly catastrophic decline in their vote share among whites in the order of ten points to more which says they have not been ill to articulate a vision of activist government that can give broad support, especially the working class. but the working -- the other part of this is, you know, certainly going to be a big point of debate after this campaign. it is entirely possible that romney will run as well among whites as in the republican chaucer ever. eyes now are 52, rate -- romneyn right in that range and loose
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and, you know, i think that is bound to the -- it should precipitate a conversation in the party. one adviser said to me, this is the last time anyone will try to do this, by which cement a symbol in national majority entirely on the backs. the paradox for republicans have is every serious thinker realize it unrealistic to ask the nominee from 62 or 63. but the existing coalition is so dependent on the portions of the white community who are uneasy with the demographic change their just paralyze between intellectual understanding, reaching out to his banks and the difficulty they are finding. the republican platform in addition to everything else assess what immigration says that any state that provides in-state tuition should be barred from all federal higher education money which means that on the republican platform every white in texas could not get a po grant. so that is sort of what there are grappling with.
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if you talk, there will say, an understanding that we have way too much. we should, but who have this leash. and after this campaign there is going to be, if obama wins despite all this very real ideological and economic vulnerability it's our to imagine that conversation will begin. >> what are you seeing in your pulling? is it consistent with what ryan is saying? in particular what he was saying about some of these gender politics. >> absolutely. i think that one of the interesting things i thought about as you were talking, just the way the parties and the media have been talking about the women's vote, it drives me crazy because the idea that there is something called the women's vote and talking with the education is a perfect illustration that there is no sort a woman's vote. what's interesting about women voters is that it is, you know, they have been under performance for obama and congressional
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democrats really since 2009. even if you look at health care, the democratic policies, this is a group that should be more supportive and there is real softness, especially among older women and blue-collar women which plays out in the 2010 election. well we're seeing now is that it's taking a very long time to bring women back to where they worked. and even so, obama is still underperforming. he won 54 percent of women. and right now he is winning them by about nine points, but he's getting 49, 50%. he has to get more like 51, 52 to actually win the election. you can't win the election without winning a majority of women. what is interesting about how women issues of playing out in the selection is it really does solidify college-educated women's attachment to the democratic party. there is no group that gets more enraged by planned parenthood or rape or limited access to birth
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control, it pushes colleges further and further away. i don't see in next couple of cycles a republican party becoming more liberal. it's an important litmus test. it's hard to see that changing. obviously it plays out very differently with blue-collar women. >> speaking of alienating constituencies because of my positions on social tough issues, the hispanic vote this time. and if, in fact, the pupil is at all correct and why is that. why is with the animating that. >> two big questions. one would be the margin in the turnout. the challenge for obama is on turnout. there's been a lot of disappointment in the latino community about the economy and immigration. the enthusiasm the surging. some of those tracking polls among latino voters.
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the margin was quite high. it's important to remember that george w. bush and call rove had a brilliant strategy of our reach to hispanic voters, and it was successful. george w. bush in 2004 won at least 40 percent of the vote. the exit polling had a net 44. but it was a remarkable accomplishment. and now romney is pulling at best in the mid-20s. and his own campaign said they need to reach 38 percent nationally in order to be competitive in the states where the latino vote will be critical. so what the republican party has done is to merge to the right instead of george of the bush, carl rove, john mccain. let's reach out to hispanics and make immigration reform something beefier. a party where mitt romney now embodies the party. he promised to veto. he is on a radical policy
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prescription. the idea of making life so miserable year that immigrants are literally purge from the country. so this looks to the right has hit badly with hispanics. that means as you point out in your paper the southwest is out of reach with of, in large part because of this. they pulled out of the mexico. they have a shot in common and nevada. the hispanic and strategy, their on the strategy has been let's talk about the economy. the cuban americans in poor regions and help that we can peel off enough of them because maybe that will be that trick. the problem is that even in florida of the hispanic election as chased by significantly. the fastest growing group of the non cuban on prairie can let american immigrants for whom emigration is a defining issue . roughly one-third. and so i suspect that he is going to have a hard time
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winning florida in part because of the changing demographics of the latino electorate in that state. >> what do you think about all of this? you wrote this great book a few years ago. a brand new party. a new type republican party that maybe would not make what appeared to be at least some of these mistakes that romney campaign is making. what you make of all this? do you think that is correct? >> first us stipulate that i disagree with a lot of what has been said. a threat to emigration there is a fascinating moment during a republican presidential debate that happened late last year during which you had mitt romney, newt gingrich commander santorum all agree enthusiastically that when the immigration reform to attract more high skilled immigrants. and kept asking them, what about the border? there were having this conversation about themselves and it was completely ignored. it sounded like a border is said to me. and of course mitt romney give a speech about immigration reform that was oriented around family
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reunification and more skilled vises. and -- and utterly marginal issue. the most recent years that we have data for you have more immigration, more skilled immigration than you do less. also, you have more representation from asia than you do let america. that doesn't necessarily mean any kind of the changed. he's not hearing terribly well. yet it is also true that the immigration debate is our friend in some ways was some of us and its friends and others by others. i think that's important to keep in mind, particularly as the composition of that continues to change. i guess i see these questions a little more differently in that i see emerging strategies versus delivery strategies. so when you're talking about brand new parties, a lot of what we're arguing is that you have the space in which you have a large number of non college-educated white voters and also these are folks who are facing, there being buffeted by all kinds of economic structural
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change, all kinds of anxieties that flow from that. and the idea came from in 2004 you won a lot of these voters in ohio and suddenly you're announcing social security reform measures that create a lot of anxiety. that is when the democrats capitalize on extremely effectively in 2005. so on the other hand, you look at the affordable care act in the debate running health reform. then you see what happens. you have this republican party where they recognize, gosh, all of our voters are older, non educated whites with a lot of anxiety about the emerging strategy in which you have conservative policy thinkers saying, hey, they are creating a new entitlement and charring on an old entitlement. the message from the new republican politicians and activists, they're cutting the sentiment. and that actually prove very potent. is the difference between an emerging strategy in the deliberate strategy. i would argue that actually republicans in practice are receptive to the things that
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they recognize as opportunities arise when we have debates about changing the specter of until of programs among but the thing is that they are backed into it. they are not actually going and looking at how we move to the center on these issues. how do we frame things more constructively. they're actually getting to that after you make the larger policy argument rather and beforehand. but i think that's actually a huge problem. again, if you're going to have to make the arguments we have to from the economic populist arguments regardless. you want to do it in a way that seems consistent, and i would say that if you look to, for example, let's say he loses in 2016. if you have the republican nominee from states like florida or new jersey then at picture going to have someone. and you're talking about dense urban coastal states in which you're actually with folks like virginia. colorado is a state where president obama was supposed to rally over perform. a large number of voters who are
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earning over 100,000 year and a large number of latino voters in a large our voters are unmarried women. he's not doing quite as well as many had anticipated. in ohio he's doing much better. it goes back to the emergence thing. and i think that if you had at different nominee you would actually -- connecticut during a lot better than people anticipated. so are targets of opportunity. you want to think carefully and deliberately about the way you frame policies. paul ryan, this kind of idea about who he is and what he believes. but one reason why a lot of conservatives are very unimpressed is that he is someone who was always very careful to say to my support a safety net. you want to modernize the safety net and make it more sustainable that message has gotten drowned out in part because it does not resonate with a lot of what you hear from conservative activists to activists. they counter the other side. partly because it does not seem organic or natural. but if you have someone who
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could make that argument in a more compelling way, someone from my dense urban that is used on more diversified truancy a different result. >> i am curious because you talk about republicans with a back into it, but is the nature of the republican primary electorate, not just next to the accident. it's hard to see in the short run how you have different strategies when you have a base the republican party that is the force that is backing someone like mitt romney into probably a much more conservative position on a range of issues that he might normally take. >> i think that's a great and important point, and when you see people who are able to overcome that, george of the bush is a classic example of someone who had a series of natural advantages, name recognition that allowed him to get through the primary process without having to establish his authenticity to the extent that mitt romney had two. but romney had some kind of -- estate that he kind of had been running for some time he knew it extremely well, he barely won
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the gubernatorial election against a very weak democratic candidate, and the key issue for him was urban issues surrounding in his language lenders, an issue that the head wound up getting into the election of the last minute. this is someone who is a smart and determined person, but not someone who, like the bushes, had a deep in organic connection to the republican party. >> but i also think that it has done worse and is getting harder, not just the one that bush was good and romney is not. >> medtronic. >> well, i think -- >> very important. at think their is a democratic as well. no question that the current republican primary electorate is a leash on the party in terms of its ability to reach out. if you look at polling whites divine exactly in half on whether the demographic changes good or bad. and among those who think it's bad, running these 31. and so you look at the
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republican primary, or 90 percent were white. and over 60 percent as it was over 50. these are voters who give from the very little leeway on immigration, and there's no question that far more important decisions that romney has made, the big reason is having difficulties are disk strategic decisions. he's using immigration from the right. and then also, the willingness to get caught up in the movement on social issues we talk about the funding for planned parenthood, the contraception five which allowed obama to all those critical hispanic in college educated white women. hispanics, double digits every month for this presidency. the idea that he would increase its share among them is just unbelievable political malpractice. it's interesting to watch the reverse and the democrats. frank would say that why didn't democrats to the immigration reform? and i think it was sparsely the fear of losing voters they've
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already lost. it was fear of losing blue collar workers. so, hey, if you do this and going to lose. they didn't have lost anyway. what i find interesting about the campaign in 2012, far greater extent in 2008 and far greater extent than romney, he made the conceptual leap across the rubicon to what the democratic coalition is. a series of positions this year on contraception with the catholic church, immigration, the immigration fight and a marriage where they have consciously exit to the idea that there will deepen their problems among culturally conservative working-class that the price of mobilizing this new coalition would tackle the coalition which is this the young people, minorities, and whites. so they have kind of made elite. as i said, i think it from the performs in a way of the performs well among whites and loses its up to like 56 to 57. it's hard to imagine that there will be a conversation and the republican party about the way the strategy is viable.
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>> what do you think about the particularly in terms of hispanics? i mean, what is the origins? is it really just about immigration? are there other factors? is it as simple as the republicans moving back toward the center and immigration for them to rally make big inroads to hispanics? how successful do you think the key b? clearly it does not look like it's happening now. maybe in a few years. >> it's not only about immigration. immigration is a giveaway issue. republicans get a hearing on the other views if there are good enough and immigration. not all, but many. and so this is -- from the is not getting a hearing on other issues, even though, you know, many of the positions of the republican party on economic issues are not in favor with the hispanic population that is interested in investments and get people to be educated and have support so that they can have a shot at the american dream. but we were talking about this.
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what if jeb bush was the ticket this year? we would be having a very different discussion right now about the hispanic vote. to be talking about the disappointment with obama on the economy and immigration, how shadbush is perfectly positioned to maybe when 50 percent of the latino vote instead of the 25% that romney is heading for, and that it could -- it would shift the electron that so dramatically that we would be talking about the southwest in a very different way. so the republicans have an opportunity to reposition themselves with the hispanic community. if john mccain himself says a search of the immigration, not the only issue. quite right. how does the republican candidate run the gauntlet of a primary season in which the attack from the right, we saw it with my equipment, determined to run as a pro emigrant modern republican in california with the republican party.
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schwarzenegger has been out to pasture says pete wilson to demonize the latino population. he had attacked in the primary. she brought out pete wilson has said she will be tough as nails and one to deport our nanny by the end of the election. you know, the hispanic vote turned out in huge numbers for jerry brown who did very little to win their affection. >> inroads among minorities, we would be having a conversation about that demographic difficulties among whites. but as you were saying, if you have a candidate that will have the hispanic so we will be talking about why obama is likely to drop 43%, even some new or. you know, republicans have set themselves a hurdle that is so high by allowing democrats to continue 80 percent of the population a share of fights to have to win becomes reagan asked and it is very hard to esther nominee to match the greatest landslide in modern times every four years.
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>> hispanics have not captured the republican party. when you could your report, minority winners. well, you can't assume that there is a democratic vote. we know the republicans who run for office to very well with hispanic voters. african-american republicans did very few african-american votes. as not true with hispanics. i think it's a longer-term republican party because it's really hard to run the cover of the primary electorate in the short run. but if the long run republicans can get themselves for an immigration i actually think there is every reason to believe that they could do better with hispanics. one caveat i would make is that as you have multiple generations born in the u.s. to become more moderate on a lot of social issues. there have been republican folks that because there is an attachment to a catholic church, more religious and the joys and gay issues you might have some traction. as of triplicate places like
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mexico where you have hundreds of years of hispanic residents the gender people are just very liberal on choice and gay-rights. so moderation on those issues. so i think at any rate that it is very complicated and not a gimme. >> pushed back a little bit. ron earlier onset something about the hispanic unemployment rate. it is also true that when you look at the unemployment rate among african-americans it is and has been quite high for some time, yet this is a constituency that of one this supports the president's reelection. i would say that cuts in a complicated way. when you look it latinas that are more fluent did become more likely to support republican candidates. and so when you have a time during which improbability in this very large and growing constituency installed, that does not necessarily benefit republicans. it actually could harm them quite a bit. that's the kind of an open question. a freer looking at an era of economic stagnation and that is going to have a particular impact on the electorate and you
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talk about how this is not really racially poor. it varies from constituency to constituency. dominican voters, this idea that mexican americans in southern california are a group that has been rationalized in certain ways and also in terms of its political identity and opposition. when you look at the policies of a city like los angeles the partisan to the is very strong. certainly a very localized phenomenon and economic stagnation will further deepen and entrenched. so one of the difficulties republicans face is that republicans really need more of portability in order to kind of make these inroads among latinos and also to kind of move away from this idea that it is a single issue constituency. adding to get away from is a good one. that is another thing about taxes that i mentioned. you have this -- this is why i keep thinking of this as an emerging strategy. a pretty big issue. we're looking at the opportunity for republican candidates who does well among households
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making over hundred thousand dollars a year in sight for gin in colorado, very big constituency. not actually really strongly over performing. well, gosh. tax cut might resonate. the politics in texas has changed considerably as the federal income-tax bases changed. and so when you look it the conservative folks to talk about the idea of instead of just calling for more marginal tax cuts, called for a dramatic expansion of the child-care tax credit, and anti the republicans have been touting since the 1990's. >> that was in your book. >> in an idea that all of a folks talked about. when you look -- >> that's kind of a later -- >> is that an issue that really resonates with the primaries are not? to your point earlier on, some people have said the poor, is someone that represented that kind of carry hard vote as well as the jesse jackson vote. uniting these two things has become very formidable.
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the question is, would you ever have a republican primary candid that can unite those two sets as well and arguably george w. bush did. you have been -- you don't have to become identical. the problem that romney faces is initially he had a tax plan that was let's keep the bush rates in place and have a total income tax cut for middle areas which totally is marginal change. then he felt that recent torrent released a plan that was designed to appeal to the wall street journal editorial page. totally contingent. some of his eyes seemed to have moved primary voters, but when you look at their sensibility and what they thought they had to accomplish because that's what they decided to do. you can imagine someone else saying, that's just to a really big child tax credit and then let's get rid of the state and local taxes and do all these other things that will essentially get a lot of these urban social liberal college educated upper class voters in states to pay higher taxes. and they give parents of young
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children to pay dramatically lower taxes. as the kind of thing i imagine would resonate with primary voters yet require some level of imagination and credibility with the primary electorate. i think that is a problem for some of these candidates. .. you could see someone -- >> i would argue to you that romney did not have to do the
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deeds he did on immigration in particular to win. rick parry, newt gingrich made choices life easier in that spring. >> sunday in the republican should do come with democrats have become much more assertive, which is a big change. a few years ago rahm emanuel himself a new stranger that democratic majorities, conservative democrats stay away from this issue because when you bring it up at rallies conservatives. it puts you on the defensive. but to barack obama deepest year? he defied his aid saying we're going to lose downscale white voters if he did this nasty american president to help hispanics hurt you with wasting voters, he did it anyway and in fact the response is quite remarkable that it did lead to an uptick of enthusiasm among
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hispanics, lots of praise from progressives and spring voters were glad somebody did something about an issue that they find -- exactly. it actually put republicans on the defensive. republicans totally paint themselves in a corner, but find how to take advantage of that pack. >> i haven't been that alienated, but i thought the point you're raising earlier was that they got elected, maybe you would mccain, maybe more, than to be elected a part of your coalition. but how do you keep them down on the farm? what should the democrats -- to appeal to these voters. >> i thought this is very much up for grabs.
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>> if obama wins the nice on a national basis, some assert the number will go down from 40%. it has been described as a victory 40 years later for mcgovern coalition of middle-class whites and minorities and now there's enough to win that way. but there is one an anomaly domain, which is obama consistently runs better in the working-class and upper middle west. so a higher, michigan, wisconsin, iowa in particular, those four, the numbers are a little better. they are running at like 44 or 45 in ohio and part of that is the auto industry, part of that is just more of the union tradition, but the big anomaly is that the white working class are evangelicals.
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>> unemployment rose their low. >> because there's an anomaly working right now in obama's favor. but look, these are voters who are being buffeted by this economy. very little reason to have loyalty to either party. neither party has shown that they can deliver positive economic results of my life and right now the default is at least republicans won't take my money to give it to people who don't deserve it, which goes back to the 80s politics. the republicans are running a 60% nationally among voters, but i think it's going to be very difficult for democrats to get to a point where they are winning most of them. the goal for democrats is different. obama seems to have been maneuvered himself as if the bottom is falling out. now was lucky not modest losses
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or intermediate losses to run 36%. it's very hard to figure a 10 year integrate into your coalition. many democrats thought dickie was providing tangible benefits, but they've come as a welfare program. maybe it will change, but i think it's a very difficult challenge. and that the white working class in particular michigan, wisconsin, ohio have complete republican control and labor battles. i do a lot of work for labor of mackenna christman 11 before it dynamics about mitt romney were in play, consistently democrats are doing better in those states where you had really, really pitched battles come even if they lost in wisconsin, you had an impact to have discussion about workers and labor. we talk about the future at democrats and white working
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class. obviously labor unions are in somewhat of a decline, but there is a way to think about for the labor movement to do better with white collar voters. >> do you do you have a view on this? and it's a big part of your book. do you think it's a matter just benefits? >> one thing i want to throw it is a look at the export oriented states, ohio and iowa communities are state that the economy fare better than the national economy, so a lot of people say -- come away from me talking about the deficit given that we have unemployment crisis and much of the reason many look at states with that of his targets, iowa, new hampshire in particular is an issue that resonates. it's almost as a psychic quality that resonates with swing voters in the region and i think that is one thing to keep in mind and one of the ways you have these strains that don't always coherent away that works for you if you're a candidate, so that is one to keep in mind.
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it's really interesting to think about the stagnation for much of the country, you have helpful income growth for people on the, but the electorate. what does that mean? one thing it means is if you look at the snap and moment people look how much is a increase in the last two years. it's increased to not agree. when bill clinton gave his talk at the democratic national convention, he was incredibly shrewd because he didn't talk about medicare. medicare is not the real wedge. it's not the real difference in terms of numbers between these two campaigns. it really is medicaid. when you look at medicaid and who benefits from medicaid, it is a lot of white working class folks as well as minority backgrounds as well. so i think when you think about how republicans talk, that is the funny thing about ryan and brian is an eerie he has in some
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respects kind of gotten it right in talking about how you want to talk about how we care about the safety. it matters to us in a free enterprise society and the dynamics excited we need to have this. it's not some kind of side thing that we kind of garnish on the salad, but an incredibly important part of making the whole system work. the problem is that the reason why he excites a lot of activists as for other reasons, the way he sometimes uses kind of very apocalyptic language about the threats to free enterprise and what have you. that is one reason for governors have an advantage because the governor, someone like mitch daniels also tracked a high percentage of the latino vote, but he is someone who talked about conservative ideas. he also rolled back in the state and very prosaic ways that were
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not very ideologically charged, yet people are shared recognized him as one of them. but on the other hand, he was able to reach beyond the base by talking about things at the basic level of how to improve the provision of services. he also is deeply interested in the workings of the medicaid program, for example and also improving. so i think that is an attractive model and i think like a lot of conservatives, and often think what would he daniels campaign have looked like? weakness is not a charismatic guy. it would've been a very interesting contrast for the president. >> you know, you noted the minority share of the algebra voter population is the three points, but she also noted it's not clear if that will be reflected in the actual lecture.
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how closely does the growth in the edp track with the change in the lecture? all to run the calculations are based on the vote remain at least as high as it was. if you look back over the last 20, 30 years that's minority -- >> that is kind of the problem with the romney strategy assuming there'd be no change is that it flies in the face of historical trends. generally we have seen the reason why the minority share of voters has increased the clockwork through points every four years or decades is basically because the share of the population and also eligible voters is increasing about that rate. the things tend to track each other. that doesn't mean it's absolutely certain, but i think it's a safer bet that it will then that it won't. but i can understand why the likely assumption that we were going over just makes the
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barrier coming to me to cross a much higher if they have to factor in you might have another couple points for minority voters. >> it seems like it's not totally insane. >> if it goes up in 28 and obama goes up to 81 or 82, both in the possibility, the number becomes vanishingly smaller. it's like 37%. i think for a lot of people that's going to be a big adjustment, like what it means to be in the country. obama is the first winner no one had ever done that before. his issue for democrats because a wedding only 40% of ways, but the idea is kind of a moment, a wake-up call for the country living in a different place than many of us grew up, especially the baby boomers which is an overwhelming the white
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generation. >> i can't remember the national journal talked about the majority of the democratic caucus in 2013 will be either women or minorities. and so, if obama wins for such a small share of the white vote and you have the majority caucus it enforces how different the democratic party would be in the long run and in the short run that will cause a lot of anxiety and stress among certain groups of white voters. >> let me ask you one more question from the audience, but i can't resist since you are to some extent the representative on the conservative side of the spectrum here. the say for the sake of argument that obama does win this election. there's going to be a lot of disappointment. how do you think the debate will play out? how closely are people in the party going to grapple if this
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does happen to some of the issues we just been discussing quite >> it is a double disappoint, so basically the reason why ideologically to make kerry about the election is the affordable care act. i think when you look at a lot of folks on the right, there is a real believe the affordable care act creates universal health system that is going to prove in a lot of ways. you hear this from mobile policy scholars as well that kind of basically divide between esi and the exchanges is a tricky one and it's hard to see how that's going to play out. we have the debate, the regardless it's going to prove far more expensive than this commonly understood, yet it is extremely difficult to retrench. must you have the expansion and people say gosh, what bill clinton's health security act was defeated, but the thing is over the 20 years you don't have a number of expansion efforts,
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both in the medicaid program through as chip, et cetera that have the public world and has expanded to maniacally. it is hard to see how you reverse the creation of the exchanges, et cetera. i think it is something they will duke it out over, but i think it is going to make coverage absolutely central to our politics. and so, then so, then you'll see a generation of republicans who will just reconcile themselves to it and basically say how do we fix that? when you look at the instruments when the medicare program is created, they did not quite come true. in a way it's a lesson for republicans because in 1964 unit goldwater served as the nominee. the result was he had enormous democratic super majorities in both houses of congress and you were able to see creation of programs that when you think about conservatives right now,
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they are still wrestling with the legacy of medicare and medicaid programs that have been created during that period when we got this person is a very ideologically appealing candidate, but he paved the way for a dramatic change in the size and structure of the federal government. so i think yeah, you'll have linda lingle doesn't want to get rid of the affordable care act commission wants to fix it. that'll be a far more common position. i seem to be change if that's what progressives are hoping for. but he means his partisan democrats might actually experienced losses will that progressive goal of covered expansion proving durable may be achieved. >> great, fantastic discussion. let's turn it over to the audience here. but in the front row. >> hi, my name is demoted, owner
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of illustrated magazine can and do committee with entrepreneurs, democratic shift. you are talking about deals with our coverage. per the 2010 census and if you actually extrapolate the data to bet they have project team outcome you are kind of looking at 38% to 62% as far as white minority to minorities like non-hispanic whites and then you add about 120 million minorities. so is there any data you have that you were speaking about, even if it was 28%. you are still tracking 10% less than the actual composition in america. so do you have data that shows how the population demographic breaks down in comparison to the voting participation? >> right, while the share of eligible voters in the united states who are minorities is probably at this point about 20%
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or 30%, so it will still come in below which shared the eligible voters. and it's obviously the share of eligible voters. if we get 20% in 2012, that's still below the share of eligible voters, which is substantially below share of the population because of the citizenship issues in each issues basically. so that's the reason why you see the difference and that's primarily driven by hispanics and secondarily by haitians is there such a difference between a minority share of the population as a whole and the binary t-shirt of eligible voters. >> delphi who does a lot of work with bruit says the gap between the minority share of the population should narrow i'm accelerating rate over time because so much of the growth are now hispanics who are
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citizens. 50,000 nativeborn hispanics turn 18 every month and will do so for apparently 20 years. so in theory, this eight-point gap or so between the minority share of the population for the eligible voter population should be nearly more frequently than eyes because so much of the growth does not have natural increase of citizens. >> just about on the hispanic vote, there is a large number of eligible hispanics who won't vote this time. so there's 23 million eligible hispanic voters and the top estimate was a little over 12 million people who vote as about half. on the other hand, 12 million is a 26% increase over just four years ago. so both things happen at the same time. huge increases, even though there is a huge gap between eligible and participating voters.
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[inaudible] >> is pretty hard to overestimate the importance of this point and there's obviously mitigating factors that made the increase in minorities doesn't translate into exactly the level and daughters, for as you see in the population. but that nevertheless means the population goes up, voters go up even in tandem if there's a difference between the level. people should never assume because minorities, especially hispanics are less likely to vote, the trends produce an increase in the hispanics who do vote. that would be an incorrect inference. okay, right there. >> my name is stephen. there were two swing states from four years ago that he did not talk about in terms of the selection. missouri and indiana. are those two solidly in the romney camp now to the side of the swing states clerics
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>> may be on people in the panel a disagree. there's no evidence that obama isn't shouting and distance and indiana. the best is an emissary in any poll is four or five sirius kind of interesting if you look at that state, the actual demographic and geographic shifts taking place within the state make it more conservative over time, which is quite unusual. so even though the story was raised in with margins and people say that is getting much wider this year. >> people point to north carolina sort of a county making it somebody more liberal or democrat leaning them but he otherwise. the thing is people come from somewhere else. so in general, if they are coming from the northeastern united states, that could theoretically make a silly pennsylvania more competitive and now that could still be
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sure, even if pennsylvania still is overwhelmingly democratic. >> basically what has happened is when i first started covering politics, the options were always decided in the swing states. they are preponderantly white, older demographically and heavily blue-collar. knowing the last eight years as a second pathway available to democrats that are very much out of shape of the same forces that are well educated and diverse. the southeast conference of north carolina, virginia and without those cupboards of nevada and they are now kind of behind in each case in the long run though, places like this day
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to work the future and in the selection obama's trends in the midwest have surprised me is then able to ban assault >> there is also different flavors and types of demographic changes taking place in the mid-western united states. according to the eligible voter data, there is no increase in minorities in ohio. it's kind of interesting despite all that coming up, romney isn't doing any better than mccain. that is different from the state like wisconsin where there's quite a lot of demographic change. pennsylvania is a state but there's quite a lot of demographic change. to see minority populations in
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the eastern part of the state world of those who teach in place and so on. so the states vary in terms of the rated type of demographic change their habit. some states are changing about like ohio and iowa and some change fairly rapidly, even in the midwest. right there. >> , mayor and london than i would like to know if there's any research data and the enthusiasm in the last few weeks. we see there is a balance they just turn off. >> people on the campaign worried about that, but the most
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recent data we have from the pio they are simply vanishing in the research. at times. there's the democratic side a recently troubled campaign. i doubt that will happen and you were talking about the latino enthusiasm that seems to be going as well. >> earlier this year the numbers were terrible and when obama made an announcement in name but before eligible for the dream act. it was really quite a remarkable difference. the question is whether the enthusiasm at that point would be sustained until election day and according to the recent tracking poll, it is actually gone even further out.
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in 2010, two in narrative that hispanics would not turn out as the election into a large extent they didn't come except in places like nevada, colorado and california where there was virtually the fire will swear that democrats in an election come the first time since 1930 than in a way of election both chambers didn't flip. say pretty remarkable performance. these were states that george w. bush carried in 2004 in nevada, colorado, new mexico. new mexico is basically no longer a battleground state. >> gentleman, way back there. actually two of them, so take them in sequence. >> hi, randy sand. they're a group of voters often described as socially liberal, but fiscally conservative. is that a large group of
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numbers? and if so, why do they seem to be getting very little respect during this election cycle? >> you know, broadly speaking that defines the upper middle class with individual exceptions the somewhat right of center on social issues is in fact the increasing prominence of the 1960s as a principal reason of what i call the classic version, the fact that democrat gavin better by color than blue collar or space debris pattern in an industrialized world for the liberal party. in the reality is being neglected. obama is likely. i would say today the road from his position history of the four quadrants, the college-educated men writing career for points down. we'll collar men, maybe five points down three or four like
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that, but the fourth quadrant, the college where women were the most affected by social issues. he is holding his number from away. and now up to 54 and 55. so i think this is part of the issue for republicans that a strategy built on empathizing the economy and economic discontent. a big chunk of obama's vote at this point between minorities and college women are not fundamentally an economic voters. they are voting another status. the minorities voting on a sense of respect and like you want me here or not is pretty much with the immigration status gets down to. so i think it does matter a great deal and as you were saying before, it creates a real challenge for republicans in that wall is easier to match up and moving on immigration and some of the issues that are so easy for democrats. either way, for the past five
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elections in 04 is the only one they did. so this is not sent the new. this is a structural change that is part of our politics and the reason why these white-collar suburbs outside philadelphia, outside detroit, outside cleveland have shifted from republicans, democrats tend to know what we saw in 08 with places like northern virginia, suburbs of charlotte and raleigh and denver follow them, which is by the states are following them. michael bennet won 60% of college where women in 2010. so it wasn't just hispanics. as socially liberal white women in obama today in two days ago in the last poll is 56 hours 58%. >> we will just say abortion is high intensity shown both sides of the debate so it's important to keep in mind >> things like planned
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parenthood, finding a plan. whichever republican presidential nominee endorse, virtually every republican in the house has voted for. i agree, abortion is what it is a need to have this divide, but other elements as contraception came in in a way and all of is allowing obama to hold his foot among those women despite. >> another thing is mccain-feingold when you don't have soft dollars, you democrats as republicans in the 70s post the first wave having to rely more on upper-middle-class donors, so that actually also shapes what is the issue next that the campaigns pay most attention to. >> immigration is not an issue that is a core based republican conservative issue. there is a sizable but minority group within the party who cares very deeply about it. why has it become the position of the party now when in fact there is such a huge and growing
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voter bloc for whom it's an important issue? >> we might have different views about this. i imagine we do. i think when it is framed, when it is refractory to the present, scat immigration doesn't really matter. all that matters is are you going to build a fence and there are a lot of folks who believe that we need more rigorous immigration enforcement one reason the obama administration embraced it, but again it's all about how are these things are presented and what are you obligated to say when you're pinned down? do you believe in enforcing these laws? the whole idea of the dream that as well, these are the good kids. the thing is many will say and i think they're right, it doesn't mean you're a bad kid if you're not in community college or maybe you got in trouble and you have a criminal record. doesn't make you a bad person. there's something very disingenuous about the debate around this. but that's because advocates
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want to structure the debate in a certain way. i don't how much of this is rooted in the police that are kind of prior to the way we actually structure the conversation. i think i begin to structure the conversation advantageously, which is their job. >> thank you. just a couple more questions and then we have to cut it off. maybe back there and also to your right. >> hi, kerry walker. was wondering if you could all address the millennial scum especially looking forward in terms of democratic party strengths. >> also the gentleman over there. they'll be up for question. >> thanks for the forum today, to the panelists. mr. brownstein, i could give a about the passions of d.c. baseball fans. you're the derek jeter political analyst. >> is that the first time you've got not? >> as you examine the role of
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the old dominion in the election and growing demographic diversity in northern virginia, loudon county, the target rich environment for the obama campaign, a former governor who is popular in richmond and the president popular also and how emblematic that race might be for the nation. the other thing is given the long habit of the party of patrilineal succession, who was in the on deck circle of the sports metaphors should governor romney loses cycle? thank you again. >> niels virginia and republican discussion. >> i feel like virginia is the tipping point state this year if you have to pick one state and for whoever wanted is most likely to income i've always felt virginia. now it might actually be -- it's not ohio because romney could win ohio and still lose predicted the winner virginia's most likely because it shows to modern coalitions fairly arrayed
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to the democratic coalition is obviously destroying minority populations, 30% minority including 10% either white or black, which is important as hispanic growth is important. it's not only deepening, but broadening. places that have not been affected by them in the upper-middle-class come as socially liberal white voters that we see. on the other side you have a strong evangelical blue-collar rural province for romney. in polling come across an subversion is wider than a place i see. obama is routinely polling at 47, 48, 49, down from 30, 31, 32, an enormous gap that underscores the changing class nature of the party.
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>> not no change, right. they're about the same. >> publicly from 44 to 48. so it's just this enormous gap. now in the battle driven into the high 20s, 29 as i recall. right now obama has the edge because he has the edge nationally. in the senate race, we are now seeing the routinely as kind of the average, 85% of people vote for, go for the senate candidate in 85% people for romney are moving into a quasi-parliamentary system by voters as well as legislatures in the way they behave. i think it is very likely whichever candidate wins the presidential race in virginia, that while some in the senate race. >> when you look at affluent voters in virginia, and many are connected to the boom in public spending and i think that's also something that shapes our perception of the two campaigns.
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>> the numbers are pretty close nationally. it's a little better, hereby. the noncollege voiceovers. you have this enormous gap that goes back to this point we're in states were a lot of blue-collar rights are evangelical, obama is especially struggling. >> is your review in the succession question. >> entries to think what one thinks about that. i think a lot of conservatives think and i think they're right there is a very large number of very strong candidates. the interesting question is what the democratic primary look like because obviously hillary clinton is an imposing figure and a figure who is not as it tensely disliked by less affluent republicans. she is someone with a very distinctive political identity. >> i think the basic question will be, is there a voice that says the party change direction to reach a broader range of
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voters, particularly minority voters and does that debate developers survey no shortage of candidates could be a champion. ryan, christie, think the voice from the bleachers shtick did not scale up and off kramden for president did not look as good in tampa as it should have. so it have to be taught to be serious, but daniels, ryan in different ways. the bigger question is is very candidate who advances the jeb bush now says. and by the way, it's not guaranteed from the wilderness. obama after three great weeks is that safety. so it's not like he's at 54. but if romney does lose, i think the big question will be, is there someone who challenges the party on issues, particularly with immigration and maybe on social issues. >> i think someone who explicitly makes that case would
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do worse. look upon the town of virginia, not that he'll be a national candidate, but if someone who clearly was socially conservative. telegraphic lueders voters and so he was able to go after suburban voters what have you, but because he thought of him is reliable, he was able to frame things differently and effectively. i tend to think that's a better model is someone who explicitly says hey guys, compare huntsmen, for example, to george w. bush. >> rubio was someone's -- jeb bush is a leader as we have to rethink some stuff, but not running himself and maybe trying to steer rubio, who is not entirely in that camp further in his direction that can be the horse. i think i could imagine that scenario. >> far be it for me to predict what republicans would do. i thought they would pass immigration in the two dozens,
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but i think jeb bush is positioning himself. he went to tampa and said he and clint bullock are writing on immigration reform that will be published next year. i think he's positioning himself to be the guy who's conservative, catholic, married to mexican-americans with the great education track record and could be well-positioned ever going to modernize, he could be the guy. >> lamas for the millennial since we did have that question. quoting the data and see, it looks like obama shares the millennial vote in operationalize the 18 to 29 euros section. it's definitely creeping up. he did win a 6632. he's not there yet. 34-point margin. the pupil had i met birches getting close at 61%. when all is said and done, he may be lined up at the pretty outsized margin among millennial's, but not as big as
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in 2008 in another related question as to what extent these folks will turn out in 2012. so keep in mind in 2008 it wasn't that astronomical. >> the under racial mix. >> that's a big part of it. >> by millennialist are more liberal. >> 55% among whites under 30 and in our poll we have been down to 50. >> anyway, short answer is looking pretty good for obama, maybe not quite as good as 2012 and that's why we hold the election. i want to thank you all for turning now. i thought this was a great panel with a lot of good information. vote early and often. thank you. [applause] [inaudible conversations]
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>> we underestimate how much we forget of our own ideas and the things we read. i mean couple were just even those of us with good memories are terrible even if it's a fragmentary hunch like thing, worse is fleeting sense sense something is interesting and then it kind of disappears. so one of the things that some people do when i try to do as well as not to just write everything down, but to keep everything together. don't over organize your notes. don't put them in folders and things like that because you want to allow interesting collisions to have been between your ideas. the important thing is to go back and reread all those nose. go back and look at notes from six years ago and we visit that i felt that now the ideas here she had. that is what the commonplace book was late for most of the grapevines of the the enlightenment.
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he was stitched together passages from books they read and were inspired by what right the romance and then go back and review this book, which was itself a remixed kind of sampled clippings above the southern ideas and their intellectual presence there in their intellectual selves was formed by this constant rereading a reimagining of other people's ideas. >> and n-november, charset fault will face ann mclane kuster in a rematch of the 2010 election were congressman bass won by just over 3500 votes. the candidates recently participated in an hour-long
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debate hosted by new hampshire public broadcasting. >> hello, everyone and welcome to the candidate format business and the economy. i am laura knoy hosting the exchange could become you from a television studio at the new hampshire institute of politics and political library at saint anselm college. for the next hour we will hear from candidates for the second congressional district. poor press them to talk about what they would do as members of congress and refrain from spending valuable time attacking each other. but let me introduce candidates. kerry, republican charlie bass and democrat, ann mclane kuster. panelists are built on and my co-from the new hampshire union leader. sure in the first half of our forum, panelists will ask questions. as we move relating around her
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candidates provide brief and decisive response has to a series of topics. then i'll take over and moderated to a discussion between candidates. some questions came from our readers, listeners and viewers. each candidate will have two minutes for a response. if there's a follow-up question, one minute for that. we tossed a coin earlier to see who would receive the first question and that question goes to mr. bass and honor panel we will begin with mike cody from the union leader. >> mr. bass, you've been in support of the bush tax cuts over the site with a major tax cut in income growth for most people stagnated during that period. what does that say about tax cuts click >> thanks for your question and thanks to the sponsors of this for a in the opportunity to get together. i'll preface by saying i've done my friend annie kuster virtually my whole life and i hope this next hour will be discussion of substantive issues and differences we have and will go to a personal level. i would want to see this happen. as far as bush tax cuts are
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concerned, one needs to remember in early 2003 economy was in some danger, nothing like we face today, but certainly after 9/11 some real issues were associated with the ability of the united states to recover from the situation in the same and i supported this tax relief measures can i think they were partially responsible for the economic boom we had in the mid-2000. i do support extending all of them, however, i also believe that what we really should do this to fold the issue of extending the early 2000 bush tax cuts into a much larger debate about fundamental tax reform. fundamental tax reform will make our nation more competitive globally, that make it possible for us to make taxes simpler, maybe some rates in some areas, was lower in others, but to have this campaign.month about
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raising taxes on those making more than $250,000 a year really doesn't help the economy recover. but it certainly does create good campaign. i believe ready to act act in a bipartisan fashion, working republicans and democrats together, understanding differences and try to come up with a more fundamental planned for tax reform that will make the u.s. more competitive globally. >> and how does the deficit reduction fall click >> tax reform and deficit reduction go hand-in-hand. a comprehensive bipartisan plan for deficit reduction that addresses for the first time in 30 some odd years the issue of entitlement reforms, which is 66% of total funding, that the two have to be linked together because in the past some have wanted tax increases at the spending reductions and other what spending reductions about tax reform. i believe the two have to go
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together. let me emphasize that is that going to happen either republican or democratic way. it has to happen both of us working together. >> myth that they come in many raise taxes they will cut back on spending, which will further stagnate the economy. also it may discourage small businesses from hiring. is this the right time to raise taxes? >> the truth is, in thank you to all the sponsors and appreciated and yes, congressman bass that won't be personal. it is our point of view that is very different in where the country is headed and this is really one of the fundamental differences between us. my senses these are challenging times. we have to get serious about the deficit and it's not serious to give millionaires and billionaires and additional tax break and i think we do need to cut the deficit. we can't afford a trillion dollars in tax relief to the
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wealthiest members of our society. everyone will continue to get the tax break up to $250,000 in income and frankly new hampshire, that is a comfortable style of living and above and beyond that come in millionaires are willing to contribute what they need to. the other piece about this is you cited economists, but the reality is we've tried this and for congressman bass or any republicans to double down on trickle-down, we know it doesn't work. if it worked we would be in this position. we've had these tax breaks for a long time now and they are not creating jobs. so 98% of americans will get tax relief. 97% of business will get tax relief, but if we are serious about cutting depth says, we cannot afford to trillion dollars break for millionaires. >> on the same subject from a wealthy individuals and to pay by how much.
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president obama suggested raising it to 39.6%. >> what i would do is go back to the clinton era tax rates, which we have a big boom in the economy at that point. we created 23 million jobs, so most americans will be comfortable returning to that tax rate and making sure that as they say everyone in the economy will get the tax break up to $250,000 in income and that is a comfortable standard of living here in new hampshire and beyond that, people are willing to pay their fair share. >> about to just briefly comment. it isn't about millionaires versus everybody else. it's about getting the economy turned around again. i would only point out that raising taxes in the middle of this recession without having any comprehensive plan to turn the economy around is a bad idea. there needs to be a bigger debate here about comprehensive
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tax reform and the dogma in the campaign of the rich versus poor. this is about the economy are here to talk about the economy turned around. the president tax hike proposals, not a tax break, tax hike to 39.5% would only lead -- pay rather four benefits of spending proposals he has proposed so far this year. it's not about that say reduction. it's a pain for bigger government. >> here is my issue with the congregants position. if these resources were being used to create new jobs, and small businesses with be paying taxes on them. at the deduction. if you hire new people that the deduction. taxes are paid on the mat. the point is see of people with this kind of income right now are not putting money back into the economy. they're not hiring new people
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are frankly not even buying new goods. we know this money is outside of the economy right now. it's on hold at the insurgency from congress causing people to stay out. >> our next question comes from phil bond. go ahead, phil. >> ms. custer, they could be hauled badly it is cutthroat through. if you want to save new hampshire jobs and keep those contracts coming to be 80, were specifically would you cut? >> first of all, thank you for bringing up trade to enact national district or congressman bass and others voted for the sequester and i was particularly surprised to see that i bae last week worried about defense cuts knowing they if they've way. where i would cut if we need cuts in the defense budget,
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which i think we do in order to attack deficits, i would cut redundant weapons systems. our clerk at at the 800 sites we have all around the world to see if we can afford that many locations at this point. but i would not cut services and goods created by bae could watch us to do with protecting our troops. i think we need to protect the troops. personally i don't own us to go to war. i want to bring the troops home from afghanistan into nationbuilding at home, but i do believe goods and services created their about protecting lance of those in harms way. >> president obama in jeanne shaheen o. supported the budget control act. did they make a mistake? >> my own problem is this is the dysfunction of congress. congress is broken. the america people know that. is the institution of the lowest approval ratings in society and this fiscal class and all sequester as an indication that
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people are not taken the deficit seriously and are kicking the can down the road and creating quite the condition in order to make even commonsense solution. >> i know you need to go to mr. bass, that is senator shaheen and president obama make a mistake by signing on? >> at the time people thought it would work, but in order to do that they need to sit down and work and the reality is that speaker boehner has refused to sit down and actually have meaningful discussions and negotiations that would get us where we need to be an hour back back in crisis mode and this particular congress we been in crisis mode every few weeks it seems. >> all right. go ahead. >> if you want to save these jobs and will continue to be in the defense budget, where would you cut? >> first of all, i can't believe that you would've voted against
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the budget control act. any responsible legislature, although we all have our own views, i believe i'm in the u.s. go into default would've been much more serious than anything that could have occurred in the sequester was designed to try to get at the process of cutting spending. republicans appointed critic at people to that so-called super committee. the democrats appointed the head of the senate campaign committee and the republican congressional campaign committee to the most political positions and the whole congress. frankly was doomed to failure at the beginning. i would point out that my willingness to cosponsor the first bipartisan budget of the same symbols budget would have addressed the whole sequester ratio in a timely manner if people had been willing to understand that the time has come to stop the fighting and begin working together in
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resolving these issues. as far as defenses can turn, the simpson/bowles plan calls for defense spending at gross domestic product is 1%% for the next 10 years and the spending decisions would be left up to the armed services committee on the authorization side and the appropriations committee on the curb read inside. but again, the issue here is not with specific program you would address, but what is the big problem here? remember, congress is controlled as senator harry reid who is a democrat and john boehner, speaker was a a republican president who is a democrat. two out of three seats held by democrats. the only way to get to these big issues is to start with the budget. we propose to do house to badgers and i've been the subject of nasty ad and my willingness to stand up and ring something to the table. there hasn't been a budget in the senate for three and a half years.
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that is not leadership. >> this is definitely important. the congressman bass wants to talk about the plan and i will let knowledge a broad approach like that is probably the direction we need to go. the reality is he voted for the rhein budget both before simpson/bowles and within 24 hours of the vote and the ryan budget has deep cuts to everything we need to get the economy moving again. education, innovation, infrastructure, roads, bridges, highways, we know how to get the economy going. we know you have to invest in opportunity today for prosperity to miron at the same time the ryan budget is not serious about cutting deficits because it has an additional $265,000 tax break for millionaires. we can afford that and we have to get serious about deficit
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reduction. >> and let's give you -- 30 seconds to respond. >> first of all, i voted for the rhein budget within 30 minutes of the simpson/bowles budget because they all came up on the same day. the plane as it is time to get the negotiating table and resolve issues. i support the deficit control plan, not appropriations, not cuts. it was a framework to reduce the size of government by approximately six jillion dollars over the next 10 years. further to the table. how can you bring if there's nothing coming from the senate at all? i also voted for a compromise budget, which will move the ball forward and i guess you don't support this kind of compromise, which is regrettable. we've had enough of this inner quarters fighting with each other, not being willing to come to the table and work this out. >> would get to that theme again at least once if not twice during this debate.
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i want to return to fill bond with a question on health care. >> you're enervate company new hampshire. how have the rising cost of health care affected your company and what should be done about it? >> first of all, have been involved in the company for well over two years or less than two years. so i'm not familiar with the internals, but health health cas are going up and if this is an entrée into the whole issue of health care reform, as is well known to have a very different view about where this nation should be headed in reform and i believe what are the biggest single impediment in this nation is the uncertainty that employers, and many in front of us this morning feel about what will happen next year thereafter in the health care law takes effect. the one thing certain is that health care premiums will not go down to the question is what's going to happen in very few people know what'll happen.
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the agencies have no idea how many thousands -- tens of thousands of pages of regulation will come up kamal exchanges will work. it's the worst possible time to be completely revamping whether you support the measure or not. the health care system in this country. i do suggest one of the quickest ways we could start this economy turning in the opposite direction but not to repeal although i support that, but at least it for the implementation of this health care -- this health care lot which is a bureaucratic boondoggle until such time as the unemployment rate is under control. see down by 2% because i cannot tell you how many small businesses i visited over the last two years he said were running second shares and kerchiefs over time because we have no idea what the payroll plan will be even if we have less than 50 employees. it's an enormous element of
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uncertainty that represents federalization of a fifth of our entire u.s. economy. it is a move in the wrong direction and i do have specific ideas about how we could've done it better. >> i'm sorry, can i just jump in there because as a small business shareholder myself who's been at a law firm for 25 years, we had double-digit increases year after year after year. it's unsustainable. every small business in new hampshire knows that. the point is 96 a small businesses under 50 won't be impact it at all. ..
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>> and now we put it into the federal government so washington bureaucrats will said it up then decide. it will not just affect companies but there are provisions to reach into
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even smaller businesses. everybody will see a different environment. it may not be better. >> use said the affordable care act penalizes upjohn the economy, health care. others say it is based on private insurance. >> but i will be very brief. health insurance companies and hospitals we'll turn into regular it -- regulated utilities. of it reduces the cost, who knows? it has new taxes and we will pay higher taxes. the medical device tax will
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affect a number -- but we doan need this law right now >> you mentioned you are a partner in the law firm. >> but it is health care inflation. i have gone to small businesses follow for this state. tire companies, to the paper company and everybody wants to provide for their employees. it is unsustainable. we have not got to the cost side issue. republicans talk about privatization. but it is very, very expensive. they pay not just the administrative fees but pay
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for profit. you cut into the health care dollars. focus not on premium care but the value. prevention, the most expensive illnesses illnesses, diabetes, obesity illnesses, diabetes, obesity , make sure we give people the preventative tools that they need to stay healthy. to focus on well this. it has been very effective. >> there are some that say the mandate will be too expensive. >> any company under 50 does not have to participate. those over 50 already seeing the checks to help them pay.
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people show up in the emergency room the most expensive and least effective in terms of preventative care. so sitting down with hospital president's they will tell you it is unsustainable 1/2 to find care so it can be sustainable. >> you said we have to tackle the cost side but it does not it tackles access but not cost. >> totally agree. access, quality and cost is the triangle. time was born bipartisan my family was republican i believe in the principles of
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competition that the consumer should have the option to choose which setting is best. if we go with the outpatient clinic and we believe the quality is sufficient then we should gauge in the savings. right now the health care provider is disengaged. >> let's turn back to mike cote. >> with workers with specialized skills, is that gaap serious problem? how do ensure they have those people? >> absolutely. i represented the new hampshire business community council. to bring people together on
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the skills. we have technical colleges. they sit down with the employer to determine the skill sets then they focus the learning on those sets. but this right and budget, a 10 million students will lose the pell grant to. deep cuts to research and development. new hampshire already made 15 percent cut. that is not sustainable to compete in the 21st century. hough and china and india are not cutting their science and technology budget. >> how does the state keep companies here? >> in hampshire workers are very talented and we do have
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a low unemployment rate. i have been so impressed during but manufacturing plants for their highly skilled. but i am concerned incentive of congress is to ship jobs overseas. congressman bass rewards companies that ship the jobs overseas with the tax break. i want to close that then bring good jobs back. we need to see tax incentives. new hampshire lost 16,000 jobs to china. as a percentage, it is number one in the country. that has to do with the boat he took on the favorable nation to trade with china. i want to create a dynamic
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with education so we have workers better trained. >> now to jump in as a direct kong -- comment she said you voted for bills to ship jobs overseas. have you? >> of course, not. the kabuki accounting with 10 million people off of pell grants, that is rather take the budget number divided out by all the programs then they select one across the board and then apply it to it. this is why harry reid did not want a budget. the republicans would do the same thing. we have to lead and we have to have a budget. i appreciate her point* but it does not control cost but establish a slush fund
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$13 billion under the secretary of health and human services subject to approval of year. that tax breaks moving offshore, there are none. they are because we don't have a competitive tax code. corporative 35%. candidate just lower negative 15%. the highest taxes in the world and pretax income choice. >> mike cote has another question. >> congressman bass what is the federal government's role of the skill gap? >> i do support those mills that have closed down. i do support getting the old burgess mill converted into
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the megawatt wood chip plant with the management of the company with opportunities for financing. baja the relationship is very special and does not derive from a federal program. federal employers look at the community, and the technical colleges. wholesale grocers has internal trading programs and they can deduct the cost her but i think it is important to have the level of federal of bald meant but the real relationship is not the government providing the opportunity but a
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combination. i am a manufacturer myself. we have gone out to to look for people. i will never forget when i was first involved with high standard, it was the carter era of program. you just had to give somebody a hammer and you got $50 from the government. we need those that are run at the more local level to provide the most necessary training. we have low unemployment for three reasons. export, and good skilled labor. >> who is to blame of the
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widening skills gap? >> i'm trying to stay away from the blame game. we have a bad economy. the states have a lot of uncertainty. it is hard to spend the time and resources when you are worried about food and education. the number one goal has to get the unemployment rate under control to stop fighting and start working together to turn this economy around. >> we still have the skills gap you talk about. i completely agree.
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it is a partnership. and it can help to bridge the skills gap but not by cutting the pell grant. in the next generation to stay competitive. >> we can dig in and the next segment. now move to the lightning ground. we ask a straightforward question to be answered quickly as in yes or no protection points for the candidate who can do that. the first time they struggle of bit to. [laughter] the questions come from phil vaughn. >> ms. mclane kuster will those mortgage funds help the economy recover? >> i believe it will. >> it is hard.
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interest notes is hard it is only above it does not provide incentive. it is with the administration and congress not providing economic leadership. >> but the federal reserve needed to act and keep interest rates low. that will help everyday americans. >> congressman bass should the social security retirement age be raised? >> i think. >> should be a matter of solvency of a very big debate including both parties. the social security trust fund will not make it through our generation without reform.
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i believe every issue should be on the table including raising retirement age age, making the benefit structure work better. i call on my democratic colleagues to come to the table. >> this is a lightning round. >> you just want to clarify? >> maybe. >> the only way to save the problem is to have a plan the only way you get that to is to be willing to say you put to every single issue on the table. >> there is a quick fix that is bipartisan if we increase the cap from $106,000. right now middle-class
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families pay one hedge a percent and wealthy people pay a fraction. we don't need to change the age it is a very quick fix. >> you started off good. [laughter] >> i have been a great. >> president obama accused china of unfairly subsidizing cars. has administrations done enough to protect businesses against unfair trade practices in china? >> this is my concern. they could do more. i'm glad they jumped 10 on tires, cars, but i am concerned hampshire losing 16,000 jobs. congressman bass is on record with the special trade deal with china. >> the white house could do
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more. >> i think that vote was over a decade ago it shows that china plays by our rules. but issues of the currency debate should be resolved and i condemn this administration doing virtually nothing proactive to do with china competition. >> proposed cutting saturday service to save money for the postal service? >> guy break with my colleagues. the biggest problem it basis is miscalculation on retirement contribution. once that is put aside use of the postal service running at a loss.
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we should have a combination of reducing service also changing the structure of the rates so they're more competitive. >> my answer is no. >> the next round questions comes from phil vaughn. >> how do define middle-class? >> a hard-working family is right here in new hampshire are almost entirely middle-class. people that earn $1 million trying to understand who would be hurt by the rhine and budget. 99.9% below that 1 million.
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i think most people consider themselves middle class up through $100,000. but some people over that if you have eight children going to college, these payments are breathtaking. >> but how many are in the family? they could be making 25 for 30 but they are single. >> i agree that the college tuition is breathtaking. [laughter] as a tool and come household with two were three paychecks away from bankruptcy if they are laid off are terrified unemployment is over 8.5%
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these are the key people who will decide if we have more of the same, the new normal with no economic recovery or try something different. >> >> any dollar amount? >> i believe the income average is around 50,000. she is right. >> congressman bass the bipartisan group is working on a new simpson bowles production plan. if it includes a tax increase on the middle-class, would you oppose it? >> recommend former senator craig and others including me even though i am on the periphery, the effort to
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find a bipartisan solution has to be the top priority. it does not have to be a tax increase but is simplification of tax rates. >> would you oppose it? >> absolutely but that is a hypothetical. i find it very unlikely. >> they need to pay their fair share. >> should this of -- federal government subsidizes? >> it is interesting because the government subsidizes fossil fuels. we cannot afford that. congressman bass has bowed bid for oil and gas subsidies, coal, nuclear, and by the way his campaign is
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funded almost entirely with contributions from those companies. >> answer the question. we have to level the playing bill. if we cannot get rid of the company's many read need to create a level playing field. >> so sorry to do that. >> energy is not to off the ground not because they're not good ideas but they are not viable. >> first of all, my campaign was not funded almost company's many read need to create a level playing field. >> so sorry to do that. >> energy is not to off the ground not because they're not good ideas but they are not viable. >> first of all, my campaign was not funded almost entirely by any group. you know, that. the total amount of money i have received over 14 years is less than 1%. about $114,000.
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peterborough oil company and others added that is different from the money but dollars to put in hundreds of thousands of dollars into your campaign. >> what about the wind subsidies? [laughter] >> i support a plan to have the lead general accountability office to a complete study right now wind gets the biggest subsidy of all. i have let-- written letters in support of continuing the investment. >> that concludes of light round of a lightning round. [laughter] we appreciate your passion in.
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this is a longer moderated discussion. then encourage them to get a dialogue to see where it takes us. i will jump in as needed to stay on target with the topic or time. president obama was criticized for the you did not build that comment. debating government and business. that is what we want to discuss. i want to give you each one minute. how much credit does government pro-business deserve economic growth? >> abizaid is the private sector that creates jobs. since the last campaign i
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created new found strategy's which did say consultant company for nonprofit fund-raising. that is what tax policy is all about. the tax breaks congressman bass voted for it encourage the production of energy but what we need to do is to grow the economy here at home but we need to end the uncertainty that flows through the deficit because companies are not investing because of their concern. but i believe this the
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private sector. >> when i heard that statement, i was offended. i used to drive this 16 straight panels and my brother and i struggled. i don't quibble that best be a has a tax credit on the other side is the biggest problem is the explosion of federal regulators getting into everything. the business on the connecticut river valley smoking meats and cheeses. a federal bureaucrat was in
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the office three street weeks. there was a reason for that. they sure have to comply sanitary reasons but this is what the federal government is doing creating fear that business is the necessary evil to fund more government. businesses get going but entrepreneurs who take risks. and they work hard. the president's subliminal response the government is responsible is wrong. >> a federal government grew during the bush and administration and during
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the obama administration 1.7%. i agree it is too big bet you put it in the wrong era. we both know of entrepreneurs who have been very successful but but who built the road who built the highways and it is basic six common-sense people understand people come into the state with no government at all. then don't drive on the highway. businesses need the educated work force granted, it is public-private partnership
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